MPP’s Game of Succession

The dust has settled on Mongolia's recent parliamentary elections and new government formation, but the political maneuvering within the ruling Mongolian People's Party (MPP) is far from over. The recent election of Dashzegviin Amarbayasgalan as Parliament Speaker, replacing the defeated Gombojavyn Zandanshatar, is not just a routine transition. It's a carefully orchestrated move that reveals the MPP's strategic thinking and their focus on securing power beyond the current electoral cycle.

This seemingly routine leadership change, akin to a well-rehearsed chess opening, has positioned key figures for future advancement. Zandanshatar's narrow election loss hasn't entirely sidelined him. He's now President Khurelsukh's Chief of Staff, keeping him close to the center of power and potentially in contention for a future presidential bid. His predecessor, Yangugiin Sodbaatar, has ascended to become the powerful MPP General Secretary, the party's number two position. Sodbaatar's immediate focus will be securing victory in the upcoming October local elections, a crucial stepping stone towards the 2027 presidential race.

This carefully choreographed rotation suggests a deliberate effort to groom potential contenders for the 2027 presidential election, when Khurelsukh is constitutionally barred from seeking a second term. While Zandanshatar’s recent loss may have weakened his immediate prospects, he remains a figure to watch, especially if he can leverage his new position to build support and demonstrate his loyalty to the President.

The race to succeed Khurelsukh seems to be already underway, albeit under the radar. Both PM Oyun-Erdene (44) and Speaker Amarbayasgalan (43) are seen as future contenders, but their youth makes them ineligible for the 2027 contest. Two figures from Khurelsukh's inner circle have emerged as potential frontrunners: Jadambyn Enkhbayar (51), the current Agriculture Minister with a national security background, and potentially Sodbaatar himself (50). Both have the experience and political capital to mount a serious bid.

Other dark horse candidates from within the MPP could also emerge, including