Mongolia’s Election: Coalitions, Control, and the Limits of Unity

With a new electoral system and shifting public sentiment, the ruling MPP faces tough test. Even if they retain a majority, as many predict, the HOW of governing will be as crucial as the WHO.

Coalitions: Pragmatism, Not Ideology

There are rumours that the Mongolian People’s Party (MPP) could look into a national unity government after Friday’s (June 28, 2024) election outcome.

But MPP may seek a coalition partner, but not for ideological reasons. The 2008 precedent, driven by the Oyu Tolgoi deal, is unlikely to be repeated, as no single issue currently demands that level of consensus.

Instead, a coalition could serve two pragmatic aims for Prime Minister Luvsannamsrain Oyun-Erdene: party discipline, and neutralizing rivals.

The Democratic Party (DP), while the potential partner due to pragmatic considerations, is deeply fractured.

The number of MPs elected loyal to former President Khaltmaagiin Battulga will likely determine the DP's reliability as a partner.

This could potentially make the more unified National Labor Party (aka KhUN) party a more attractive option.

The President: The Stabilizer, Not the Power-Grabber

Contrary to speculation about another term, President Ukhnaagiin Khurelsukh's focus in his remaining three years is likely legacy-building and ensuring a smooth transition, not clinging to power. He'll likely seek to maintain stability within the MPP and avoid the fate of ostracized predecessors.