A Calculated Gambit: Unpacking the MPP's Push for a Coalition in Mongolia

MPP's decision to pursue a coalition, while seemingly counterintuitive, is a calculated gamble aimed at securing not just power, but the ability to wield that power effectively.

Mongolia's June parliamentary elections produced an intriguing outcome: the ruling Mongolian People's Party (MPP) secured a third term, winning 68 seats out of 126, but falling short of the supermajority they had previously enjoyed. The MPP still possesses the simple majority needed to pass legislation and form a government.

However, this seemingly comfortable majority masks a web of strategic considerations driving the MPP's unexpected push for a coalition government. A deeper analysis, rooted in Mongolia's constitutional framework and the MPP's internal dynamics, reveals a more calculated approach.

Prime Minister Oyun-Erdene and Parliament Speaker Amarbayasgalan

The first layer of this strategy lies in the Constitution itself. Crucial actions like overriding presidential vetoes and amending the Constitution require supermajorities—two-thirds (84 MPs) and three-quarters (95 MPs) respectively.

The MPP, with its 68 seats, falls short of these thresholds. A coalition, therefore, becomes a pathway to circumvent these constitutional safeguards, granting the MPP power beyond their electoral mandate. This raises concerns about undermining the checks and balances designed to prevent one party from wielding unchecked control, but for the MPP, it's a calculated move with an eye on the 2027 presidential and 2028 parliamentary elections.

Beyond these long-term ambitions, the MPP faces more immediate challenges. A simple majority, while sufficient in theory, creates practical vulnerabilities.

Parliamentary procedure mandates a quorum—a majority of all MPs (64)—for valid sessions and passing laws. If the opposition, along with just five MPP members, boycott or block sessions, legislative progress grinds to a halt.